Making an Informed Decision

Gathering More Evidence About the Current Situation

One step towards making a more informed decision is to gather more evidence about the current situation. Here are questions you might pose to learn more about the relevant data currently available about the pandemic scenario. As you will see, each question yields more information.

What is the projected economic cost of the emergency response?	Your economic advisor expects that an emergency response will reduce economic activity in the region. He estimates the cost of the response to the economy to be $600 million this year and $400 million next year (for residual impacts).
What is the likelihood the outbreak is very severe?	After much debate, your advisors agree that there is a roughly 30% probability that this will turn out to be a serious outbreak and a 70% probability that it will turn out to be mild.
How many lives will be saved by an emergency response in the case of severe outbreak?	Your health advisors project that a severe outbreak, unchecked by an immediate emergency response, could claim around 600 lives. Under emergency response, they project mortality would be reduced to 120 lives, a difference of 480 lives.
Where are the reported cases coming from?	Over 90% of the cases that have been reported so far have been reported by city hospitals. It is unknown how many additional cases have presented at rural hospitals, which are not as prepared to identify and report cases.
When will the severity of the outbreak be known?	In 2 weeks, you will be able to get better, though not perfect, information on the severity of the outbreak. If the outbreak looks severe in two weeks (50% likely), there is a 50% chance it actually is severe. If it looks mild (50% likely), there is a 90% chance it actually is mild.

Learning from Similar Past Cases

Another step towards making a more informed decision is to learn from similar cases in the past. Like many countries, Canada, Mexico, the UK, and China have all had experience using aggressive emergency procedures in response to pandemic threats, with varying degrees of success. You can read more about each case below.

SARS in Canada

In late March 2003, Canada responded to an outbreak of the SARS coronavirus in Toronto by quarantining roughly 100 people for every one confirmed case of SARS. In May 2003, the number quarantined had been greatly reduced and the WHO declared Toronto free of SARS. One week later, SARS outbreaks reappeared and quarantine procedures were put back in place.

H1N1 in Mexico

In 2009, Mexico's President Calderon declared an emergency in response to his country's H1N1 flu virus outbreak, virtually shutting down the local economy in Mexico City. His actions were widely credited with bringing the epidemic under control.

MERS in the UK

In 2013, the United Kingdom responded to an outbreak of the MERS coronavirus by initiating an aggressive emergency response strategy despite having only 11 reported cases. France, Germany, and Spain had a similar number of reported cases, but chose not to respond aggressively. The outbreak was contained in all four countries.

H1N1 in China

In 2009, China responded to the H1N1 pandemic with an aggressive containment approach. Chinese officials conducted on-board temperature checks for every incoming international flight and quarantined entire groups of passengers if even one was found to have a high temperature. When the virus was determined to be less lethal than originally thought, China scaled back its response measures which in retrospect were determined by some experts to be an overreaction.

Reflection Question: Are Similar Cases Relevant?

Do you find these similar cases relevant enough that they would inform your decision in this scenario?

- - No, they do not seem relevant.

- - Yes, they seem relevant.

Feedback: This question is designed to get you thinking.